November 2024 CEO Briefing: US Election Shockwaves, Tariff Risks, and AI in Infrastructure

1. Donald Trump's re-election accelerated the EU's urgency for genuine strategic autonomy in defense, foreign policy, and trade.
2. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) released the first operational framework for the secure deployment of AI in critical infrastructure.
3. Post-election announcements of sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China threatened to redraw global supply chains in anticipation of 2025 implementation.

For executives, these were not isolated events, or as I call them: layers. They formed a connected triad of geopolitical, technological, and economic forces requiring integrated, decisive responses. Let’s dive in!

Layer 1: Post-US Election: A New Phase in Transatlantic Relations

Donald Trump's November 5, 2024 victory, securing 312 electoral votes compared to Kamala Harris's 226, set the tone for the next four years: a more than likely return to transactional diplomacy underpinned by "America First" principles1.

Key expectations from U.S. policy circles include:

• Leveraging NATO commitments to demand higher European defense spending.
• Pressuring EU trade alignment with U.S. positions on China, possibly urging full or partial economic decoupling.
• Reassessing Ukraine aid based on European contributions, creating uncertainty for Eastern European stability.

European leaders (hopefully) have begun preparing for this shift. The European Council's ongoing discussions on strategic autonomy have gained new urgency, with increased focus on defense integration and the expansion of the European Peace Facility.

As noted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, "The Trump administration is likely to leave European security to Europe," creating pressure for Washington to "empower Europe to step up" rather than pursue chaotic withdrawal2. This sentiment is reinforced by defense analysts who warn that Trump's transactional approach will "heighten" challenges to Europe's defense-industrial efforts, particularly the EU's "buy European" procurement preferences tied to strategic autonomy goals3.

From my point of view, there must be a new mix in the European defense structure: As the US will have to prioritize their playing fields in the future (Asia Pacific vs. Europe), it is highly likely that Trump will insist that the Europeans and in parallel the NATO members invest heavily in their own military capabilities. Which, honestly speaking, is absolutely necessary with a non-friendly neighbour at the door in Europe. The US will for sure keep their nuclear commitments in place and play in Europe. But conventional military capabilities will have to be developed, produced, bought, deployed by the Europeans ASAP. Germany must be a key driver in this tectonic shift in European defense architecture. First priority is to secure the Eastern flank in Ukraine as long as possible. Secondly and parallely, the aforementioned ramp-up of capabilities must be initiated immediately.

Strongly interlinked to the defense topic is the dependency for Europe on good relations with the US government. If Trump puts tariffs into place that he mentioned in his campaign, it will be bad. Mainly very bad for the export-oriented powerhouses in the EU like Germany. But, also bad for US citizens as they, by logic, will have to pay an extra on every imported good, although Trump tried to underline in his speeches that tariffs would only favor the US.

To show the US that the EU is willing to invest into their defense capabilities will be an important asset in negotiations regarding tariffs. Two different playing fields, but nevertheless connected layers.

Strategic takeaways:

• Model multiple geopolitical scenarios: Include defense budget shifts, potential U.S.–EU trade frictions, and security policy changes in planning. Defense will be a huge business opportunity.
• Broaden strategic partnerships: Strengthen supply, client, and governmental ties beyond the transatlantic sphere.
• Institutionalize geopolitical intelligence: Make political risk assessments a recurring board-level agenda item. There is a storm coming named Trump and its outcomes are unpredictable.

Layer 2: Tariff Announcements and Supply Chain Preparation

In late November 2024, approximately three weeks after his election victory, Trump announced planned tariffs: “25% on imports from Canada and Mexico”, and “10% additional tariffs on China”5. These announcements, targeting implementation after his January 2025 inauguration, immediately triggered strategic planning across industries:

• Anticipatory cost modeling in automotive, electronics, and agriculture sectors.
• Supply chain risk assessments as companies prepared for potential retaliation from targeted countries.
• Accelerated nearshoring discussions to reduce future tariff exposure.

These developments occurred while global supply chains remain vulnerable from pandemic aftershocks, energy volatility, and maritime congestion, amplifying the strategic imperative for diversification. Economic analyses suggest that broad tariff implementation could disrupt supply chains, raise costs for businesses, eliminate hundreds of thousands of jobs, and ultimately drive up consumer prices. Industry observers noted that "world leaders and major investors have spent the two weeks since the US election wondering whether President-elect Donald Trump will follow through fully on his campaign threats to impose universal tariffs"6. My best guess is: tariffs are coming and it will be bloody!

Strategic takeaways:

• Implement "+1" strategies: For example, China+1 and North America+1 to reduce overexposure.
• Upgrade supply chain visibility: Use AI and digital twins to monitor risks and predict disruptions.
• Prepare pricing and contract strategies: Model cost scenarios and establish communication frameworks with key customers and suppliers.

Layer 3: AI in Critical Infrastructure: From Ethical Theory to Operational Mandate

On November 14, 2024, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security released its “Roles and Responsibilities Framework for Artificial Intelligence in Critical Infrastructure”, marking a transition from policy talk to concrete operational guidance for critical sectors (energy, healthcare, transportation, finance)4.

The framework addresses three major categories of AI-related risks and establishes requirements including:

• Security assessments for AI systems in critical infrastructure.
• Risk management protocols aligned with safety, fairness, and privacy principles.
• Coordination mechanisms between government and private sector stakeholders.
• Incident reporting and information sharing to strengthen sector resilience.

For multinationals serving U.S. infrastructure clients, these principles are becoming de facto contractual considerations. With similar initiativess already under discussion in the EU, early adoption offers a compliance advantage and reputational benefit. This development builds on NIST's existing AI Risk Management Framework, which released a Generative AI Profile in July 2024 to help organizations identify unique risks posed by generative AI.8

Strategic takeaways:

• Audit all AI systems tied to critical operations: Verify they meet emerging security standards.
• Invest in governance capacity: Build internal expertise on AI ethics, compliance, and regulatory alignment.
• Adopt proactive compliance: Integrate DHS/NIST standards across all geographies, not just U.S. markets. It is highly likely that the U.S. will expect being compliant even beyond their border.

Conclusion

November 2024's events reinforced that we must integrate geopolitical agility, technological governance, and operational resilience into a single leadership model:

• Political transitions can reshape alliance expectations within weeks. Transatlantic relations now require hedging strategies, not just historic trust.
• Trade policy announcements can trigger supply chain strategy shifts months before implementation. Resilience planning must be constant, data-driven, and geographically diversified.
• AI security frameworks have moved from aspiration to operational requirement. Early adoption of compliance frameworks is becoming a competitive differentiator.

The leaders who act now, embedding foresight and adaptability into decision-making, will not only protect their organizations but will emerge as trusted anchors in an increasingly dynamic global economy.